The Moonshot Threat Bulletin – at a glance
The Moonshot Threat Bulletin is designed to inform threat assessments for public safety professionals, analysts and decision-makers alike, who need to hone in on emerging trends faster and understand how developments online may translate to offline risk.
In this series, we provide a monthly glimpse into the Threat Bulletin’s national trends analysis of online DVE spaces across the U.S. Our aim is to give a taste of the critical insights and coverage that the Threat Bulletin provides.
This blog contains a short excerpt from February’s Moonshot Threat Bulletin. If you would like to access a one month free issue of the Threat Bulletin or discuss buying a subscription for your organization, please get in touch: threatbulletin@moonshotteam.com
February 2023 National Trends
Key Insights
The Train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio prompted a sharp increase in conspiratorial narratives. The incident attracted DVE group activity, with both Patriot Front and the National Justice Party active in the area. Influential figures in DVE spaces framed the incidents as a “coordinated attack”, including Alex Jones, who labeled the East Palestine derailment as “economic warfare” conducted as part of the “New World Order” plan.
Telegram account purporting to belong to founder of accelerationist network, The Base, posted a link to open infrastructure map in wake of Baltimore neo-Nazi arrests. On February 3, Brandon Russell, founder of the neo-Nazi group Atomwaffen Division, and his associate Sarah Clendaniel, were arrested in connection with an alleged plot to destroy power substations in the Baltimore area. In response to their arrests, calls for further vandalism and violence were shared in DVE spaces, including the infrastructure map from a user purporting to be the Base’s founder Rinaldo Nazzaro.
Aryan Freedom Network (AFN) podcast confirmed the group’s belief in the “inevitability” of a violent race war. AFN’s Vice President Daisy Barr was featured this month in the white supremacist Fourteen Words podcast, where she encouraged listeners to distribute AFN fliers locally and shared with the host of Fourteen Words the AFN’s belief in social collapse. Claiming that a race war is “inevitable,” Barr further stated that AFN is “building” an “army” of “like-minded individuals” for when matters “escalate”.
Earthquake in Turkey reignited HAARP conspiracy theories. In the aftermath of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Turkey and Syria, Romanian Senator Diana Iovanovici claimed that the earthquake was deliberately caused by High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) technology, an Alaska-based program that studies the ionosphere, to “punish” Turkey’s neutral stance on the Ukraine-Russia war. HAARP has been at the center of various conspiracy theories over a number of years, with false allegations that it can be used to create natural disasters. Iovanovici’s claims are now being shared widely in DVE spaces.
Mainstream reporting on “National Day of Hate” against Jewish communities served to embolden antisemitism. The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) warned of a “National Day of Hate” against Jewish communities on February 25. Mainstream reporting on the day dramatically increased its notoriety in DVE spaces, and some called to reframe the whole of March as a “month of hate”. Prior to this reporting, discussion of the day was extremely limited. In response to mainstream reporting, DVE groups including White Lives Matter and Goyim Defense League specifically advised against activism on February 25.
Compared to the previous 6 months of data, references to “psychological operations” increased in DVE spaces by 33% in February. DVE audiences have increasingly used the term “psy-ops” to describe and cast doubt on the authenticity of mass shootings, disasters, and other events. While a psy-op is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory, interpreting and dismissing events as psy-ops can underpin and justify wider conspiracy theories such as The Great Replacement theory, New World Order, and COVID-related conspiracies theories. This trend is concerning as it reflects a willingness to interpret events through a pre-established, conspiratorial worldview, and may motivate violence against communities falsely blamed or associated with harmful conspiracy theories.
________________________________________________________________________________
The Moonshot Threat Bulletin provides an overview of the key events, themes and narratives discussed by audiences within online U.S.-based Domestic Violent Extremist (DVE) spaces, including:
- Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism (REMVE)
- Anti-Government and Anti-Authority Violent Extremism (AGAAVE) (including Militia Violent Extremism, Sovereign Citizen Violent Extremism, and Anarchist Violent Extremism)
- Harmful Conspiracy Theories online.
It also provides an assessment of violent hate, threats, and harassment trends online.
The Threat Bulletin includes comprehensive coverage of both mainstream and niche platforms, including Twitter, YouTube, Reddit, Gab, Telegram, 4chan, Stormfront, Gettr, 8kun, TruthSocial, among others.
The Threat Bulletin also monitors and forecasts future trends and events to watch across online DVE spaces. For more detailed insights and analysis, including geo-spatial assessments of DVE threats across the U.S., please get in touch: info@moonshotteam.com.
